by Michael Shoer | Sep 28, 2026 | The Long Way Back
The Long Way Back · Part 5 of 5Holding to 2030: The Owner's PlaybookWaiting costs about $65 a barrel a year. Against the spread between a forced bid and fair market value, that is small. Here is the math, by cost basis, and the four rules for the wait.By...
by Michael Shoer | Sep 28, 2026 | The Long Way Back
The Long Way Back · Part 4 of 5What a Barrel Is Worth in a Forced SaleThe same barrel has three prices right now. The spread between the first and the third can exceed everything the barrel has earned since it was filled.By Michael Shoer, Victory Spirits Barrel...
by Michael Shoer | Sep 28, 2026 | The Long Way Back
The Long Way Back · Part 3 of 5The Fill CurveSeven straight years of filling more than the market drinks, then the biggest cut in memory. The whole story of the bulk market is in one bar chart.By Michael Shoer, Victory Spirits Barrel Lab™ · The Long Way Back...
by Michael Shoer | Sep 28, 2026 | The Long Way Back
The Long Way Back · Part 2 of 5Who Is Drinking Bourbon in 2036?Fewer Americans drink, and the young drink least. The category is not collapsing, but the next cohort is smaller, and it is reaching for a different glass.By Michael Shoer, Victory Spirits Barrel...
by Michael Shoer | Sep 28, 2026 | The Long Way Back
The Long Way Back · Part 1 of 5The Glut Is Real. So Is the Gap.Record inventory, consumption off its peak, fills cut hard, prices at cost. The two facts everyone argues about are the same barrels seen from two different years.By Michael Shoer, Victory Spirits...
